Analyzing and Modeling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages BA.1 and BA.2, France, September 2021-February 2022.

We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemiologic modeling shows that, in spite of its decreased virulence, the Omicron variant can generate important critical COVID-19 activity in hospitals in France. The magnitude of the BA.2 wave in hospitals depends on the level of relaxing of control measures but remains lower than that of BA.1 in median scenarios.

Epidemiological and clinical insights from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR crossing threshold values, France, January to November 2020.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented daily use of RT-PCR tests. These tests are interpreted qualitatively for diagnosis, and the relevance of the test result intensity, i.e. the number of quantification cycles (Cq), is debated because of strong potential biases.AimWe explored the possibility to use Cq values from SARS-CoV-2 screening tests to better understand the spread of an epidemic and to better understand the biology of the infection.MethodsWe used linear regression models to analyse a large database of 793,479 Cq values from tests performed on more than 2 million samples between 21 January and 30 November 2020, i.e. the first two pandemic waves. We performed time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to estimate whether Cq data information improves short-term predictions of epidemiological dynamics.ResultsAlthough we found that the Cq values varied depending on the testing laboratory or the assay used, we detected strong significant trends associated with patient age, number of days after symptoms onset or the state of the epidemic (the temporal reproduction number) at the time of the test. Furthermore, knowing the quartiles of the Cq distribution greatly reduced the error in predicting the temporal reproduction number of the COVID-19 epidemic.ConclusionOur results suggest that Cq values of screening tests performed in the general population generate testable hypotheses and help improve short-term predictions for epidemic surveillance.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are associated with lower RT-PCR amplification cycles between January and March 2021 in France.

SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concern regarding the mortality caused by COVID-19 epidemics. We analyse 88,375 cycle amplification (Ct) values from variant-specific RT-PCR tests performed between January 26 and March 13, 2021. We estimate that on March 12, nearly 85% of the infections were caused by the Alpha variant and that its transmission advantage over wild type strains was between 38 and 44%. We also find that tests positive for Alpha and Beta/Gamma variants exhibit significantly lower cycle threshold (Ct) values.

Rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in some French regions, June 2021.

We analysed 9,030 variant-specific RT-PCR tests performed on SARS-CoV-2-positive samples collected in France between 31 May and 21 June 2021. This analysis revealed rapid growth of the Delta variant in three of the 13 metropolitan French regions and estimated a +79% (95% confidence interval: 52-110%) transmission advantage compared with the Alpha variant. The next weeks will prove decisive and the magnitude of the estimated transmission advantages of the Delta variant could represent a major challenge for public health authorities.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 lineage (VOC ß) is outgrowing the B.1.1.7 lineage (VOC α) in some French regions in April 2021.

To assess SARS-CoV-2 variants spread, we analysed 36,590 variant-specific reverse-transcription-PCR tests performed on samples from 12 April-7 May 2021 in France. In this period, contrarily to January-March 2021, variants of concern (VOC) ß (B.1.351 lineage) and/or γ (P.1 lineage) had a significant transmission advantage over VOC α (B.1.1.7 lineage) in Île-de-France (15.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 15.5-16.2) and Hauts-de-France (17.3%; 95% CI: 15.9-18.7) regions. This is consistent with VOC ß's immune evasion abilities and high proportions of prior-SARS-CoV-2-infected persons in these regions.

Detecting Rapid Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants, France, January 26-February 16, 2021.

Variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 raise concerns regarding the control of coronavirus disease epidemics. We analyzed 40,000 specific reverse transcription PCR tests performed on positive samples during January 26-February 16, 2021, in France. We found high transmission advantage of variants and more advanced spread than anticipated.

Self-reported loss of smell without nasal obstruction to identify COVID-19. The multicenter Coranosmia cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 positive samples in a subset of patients consulting for primarily isolated acute (<7 days) loss of smell and to assess the diagnostic accuracy of olfactory/gustatory dysfunction for COVID-19 diagnosis in the overall population tested for COVID-19 in the same period. METHODS: Prospective multicentric cohort study in four olfactory ENT units and a screening center for COVID-19. RESULTS: i) Among a subset of 55 patients consulting for primarily recent loss of smell, we found that 51 (92.7%) had a COVID-19 positive test (median viral load of 28.8 cycle threshold). Loss of smell was mostly total (anosmia), rarely associated with nasal obstruction but associated with a taste disorder in 80%. Olfactory dysfunction occurred suddenly, either as first complaint or preceded by mild symptoms occurring a median of 3 days. The majority of patients (72.9%) partially recovered the sense of smell within 15 days. ii) In a population of 1824 patients tested for COVID-19, the positive predictive value and the specificity of loss of smell and/or taste were 78.5% and 90.3% respectively (sensitivity (40.8%), negative predictive value (63.6%)). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported loss of smell had a high predictive positive value to identify COVID-19. Making this sign well known publicly could help to adopt isolation measures and inform potential contacts.